The Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), setting Nigeria’s fiscal direction, economic assumptions and revenue outlook for the next three years.
The framework, endorsed at Wednesday’s council meeting chaired by President Bola Tinubu, projects a 4.68 per cent GDP growth rate and estimates total federation revenue at ₦50.74 trillion.
According to the document, the Federal Government is expected to receive ₦22.6 trillion, states ₦16.3 trillion, and local governments ₦11.85 trillion.
Briefing State House correspondents, Minister of Budget and National Planning Atiku Bagudu said the MTEF was jointly prepared by his ministry and the Budget Office of the Federation.
“We have adopted assumptions that reflect both current realities and forward-looking macroeconomic modelling. The goal is stability and credibility in fiscal planning,” Bagudu said.
The council adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.06 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2026, although fiscal projections will be based on a more conservative 1.8 million bpd.
The oil price benchmark was set at $64 per barrel, with an exchange rate assumption of ₦1,512 to the dollar.
Bagudu explained that the exchange rate outlook “takes into account the fact that 2026 precedes a general election year,” noting that inflation is expected to average 18 per cent.
Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy Wale Edun also announced the approval of two concessional financing facilities.
The first is a $100 million African Development Bank loan to strengthen the Nigeria Youth Investment Fund for citizens aged 18 to 35.
“The facility will provide a blend of equity, debt, grants and institutional support to boost youth-led enterprises,” Edun said.
The second approval is a $50 million Islamic Development Bank–financed Integrated Agricultural Development Project for Yobe State. Edun described both loans as “highly affordable and targeted at productive sectors.”
Edun added that President Tinubu commended cabinet members for their efforts under the Renewed Hope Agenda, pointing to new data showing 3.89 per cent GDP growth in Q3 2025, driven largely by improvements in agriculture and industry.
