The Nigerian Economic Summit Group has raised fresh concerns over Nigeria’s growing debt burden, warning that the country remains under serious fiscal pressure despite signs of short-term stability.
In its May 2026 Debt Burden Monitor released on Monday, the economic think tank said Nigeria’s rising borrowing profile and weak revenue generation could worsen the country’s financial challenges in the coming years.
According to the report, Nigeria may borrow as much as ₦29.2 trillion in 2026 to fund its widening budget deficit.
The Federal Government’s proposed 2026 budget stands at ₦68.32 trillion, while projected revenue is estimated at ₦36.87 trillion.
The NESG said, “Nigeria’s debt profile presents a nuanced but concerning picture as the economy transitions from 2024 into 2025.”
It added that although the Debt Burden Index dropped from 83.6 points in 2023 to 70.9 points in 2024, the improvement was largely due to reduced debt servicing pressure rather than stronger fiscal capacity.
“At the same time, public debt-to-GDP rose sharply to 40.6 percent, reflecting continued reliance on borrowing to finance fiscal deficits and structural revenue weaknesses,” the group stated.
The report also warned that debt pressure remains “elevated and volatile,” with quarterly projections for 2025 remaining within what it described as a “high-stress band.”
Nigeria’s total public debt stood at ₦159.28 trillion as of December 2025, including external debt estimated at $51.86 billion.
The analysts expect the figure to rise further toward ₦180 trillion to ₦200 trillion in the medium term.
The NESG concluded that Nigeria has not yet achieved “a decisive shift toward debt sustainability,” warning that rising debt service costs, inflation and exchange rate pressures could further strain the economy.
