IMF Warns Rising Food Prices Will Worsen Poverty in Nigeria Despite Economic Growth

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that rising prices of essential goods will worsen poverty and food insecurity in Nigeria despite improvements in the country's macroeconomic stability.

The warning is contained in the IMF's July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update, which maintained Nigeria's economic growth forecast at 4.1 percent for 2026 and 4.3 percent for 2027.

According to the IMF, Nigeria's economy is benefiting from improved macroeconomic stability and favourable terms of trade, but rising living costs continue to pose significant challenges for households.

"Nigeria is supported by improved macroeconomic stability and favorable terms-of-trade effects, though higher prices for essentials are expected to further aggravate poverty and food insecurity," the report stated.

The Fund said growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to remain broadly stable at 4.3 percent in 2026 and 4.5 percent in 2027, although performance will vary among countries depending on policy reforms, fiscal space and exposure to external shocks.

It noted that oil-importing and non-resource-intensive economies are likely to be more affected by higher food and energy prices, while some larger economies continue to benefit from earlier economic reforms.

Globally, the IMF revised its growth forecast downward, projecting the world economy to expand by 3.0 percent in 2026 and 3.4 percent in 2027, compared with the average growth of 3.5 percent recorded in 2024 and 2025.

The Fund attributed the weaker outlook to the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, although it said growing investment in artificial intelligence is helping to offset some of the slowdown.

The IMF also projected that global inflation would rise from 4.1 percent in 2025 to 4.7 percent in 2026 before easing to 3.9 percent in 2027, warning that the earlier trend of slowing inflation has stalled.

It cautioned that renewed conflict in the Middle East could further disrupt supply chains, increase commodity prices and tighten global financial conditions.

The Fund urged governments to restore price stability, rebuild fiscal buffers and pursue structural reforms aimed at strengthening energy security, improving readiness for artificial intelligence and enhancing international cooperation.