Nigeria’s business activity rose to a record 117.8 points in September 2026, surpassing the previous high of 117.2 points recorded in February, according to the Nigerian Economic Summit Group.
The latest Business Confidence Monitor showed that the Current Business Performance Index increased from 112.7 points in August and 107.9 points in September 2025.
The expansion was broad-based across sectors, with Trade recording the strongest performance, while Manufacturing and Services recorded slower activity compared with the previous month.
Trade’s performance rose sharply to 128.5 points from 112 points in August, supported by stronger wholesale and retail activity.
NESG linked the increase partly to stockpiling and stronger consumer demand associated with back-to-school shopping.
Agriculture also recorded stronger activity, rising to 117.7 points from 110.5 points in August, although Forestry and Fishing moved into contraction.
Manufacturing, meanwhile, declined to 108.4 points from 120.4 points but remained above its level a year earlier.
Non-Manufacturing improved to 113.4 points from 109.7 points, supported by the return of Crude Petroleum to expansion, while Oil and Gas Services contracted.
Services remained in expansion at 107.7 points, although the sector slowed from 112.4 points in August.
Despite the strong business performance, cost pressures remained a major concern.
NESG’s Cost of Doing Business and Prices sub-indices stood at 39.2 and 58 points respectively, both below the 100-point neutral threshold, indicating continued pressure from operating costs and producer prices.
Businesses also continued to contend with financing constraints, irregular electricity supply, insecurity, infrastructure bottlenecks and high rental costs.
Manufacturers faced additional challenges from raw-material supply constraints.
The financial results index also fell into contraction after several months of expansion, suggesting that stronger business activity has not yet translated into equally strong financial outcomes for firms.
Looking ahead, businesses remained cautiously optimistic.
The Future Business Expectation Index stood at 128.9 points in September, slightly below 129.3 points in August, indicating that firms still expect business conditions to remain favourable over the next one to three months.
Trade had the strongest outlook at 192 points, followed by Manufacturing at 151.9 points and Non-Manufacturing at 148.1 points. Agriculture recorded 134.8 points, while Services had the lowest expectation index at 123.2 points.
NESG says persistent cost pressures, alongside challenges with finance, electricity, infrastructure and security, could continue to weigh on business activity and new investment.
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