Nigeria’s Economy Recovering After Painful Reforms — NRS

The Nigeria Revenue Service, NRS, says the country’s economy is showing strong signs of recovery and accelerated growth following a series of painful reforms introduced by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

In an internal report, the NRS said Nigeria had moved from “acute macroeconomic distress” to a more stable and resilient footing, citing improvements in inflation, oil production, tax revenue, external reserves and the balance of payments.

The report said the administration inherited major economic challenges, including an unsustainable fuel subsidy regime, an opaque foreign exchange system, a struggling oil sector and a tax base below its potential.

According to the NRS, oil production increased from about 1.2–1.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.73 million barrels per day by July 2026, representing 104 per cent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota.

It also said tax collections more than doubled from N12.3tn in 2023 to N27.1tn as of July 2026, while external reserves rose from $3.99bn to $51.9bn during the same period.

The revenue service said economic growth increased from 2.74 per cent in 2023 to 3.8 per cent in the first half of 2026, while the balance of payments moved from a $3.34bn deficit to a $2.38bn surplus in the first quarter of 2026.

It added that market capitalisation of the Nigerian Exchange rose from N30.36tn in 2023 to N161tn in 2026, attributing the growth partly to improved macroeconomic credibility, banking-sector recapitalisation and increased domestic institutional investment.

The report also highlighted the naira-for-crude arrangement with Dangote Refinery and other local refineries, saying it had helped Nigeria become a net exporter of petroleum products after years of dependence on imports.

On debt, the NRS said Nigeria’s debt stock increased from N87.4tn in 2023 to N159.28tn in late 2025, but the debt-to-GDP ratio declined from 38 per cent to 35.5 per cent in 2025 and 32.3 per cent in 2026.

It said the reforms had also supported developments in agriculture, compressed natural gas and social indicators, while noting that some sectors, particularly agriculture, would require more time for policy measures to translate into higher output.

The NRS maintained that despite the initial hardship caused by the reforms, key economic indicators now point to a gradual recovery and improved resilience.